John Baron MP warns of escalation in Syria

MP says lessons from previous interventions must be heeded

There is growing speculation that the UK, France and the US will use military force on the Assad régime following the use of chemical weapons last weekend. John Baron MP, who has opposed every British military intervention since 2003, has published an article [online at: http://www.politeia.co.uk/time-to-reflect-by-john-baron-mp], warning of the dangers of escalation and the need to learn past lessons.

In his article, John writes,

“It is unclear whether military action would have any practical or chastising effect – the damage caused to the Syrian airbase by the American attack in April 2017 was apparently quickly repaired, with aircraft using the runway just a few hours later, and chemical weapons continue to be used in Syria.”

“Given that a longer, more widespread and sustained bombing campaign may be required, there remains the strong possibility of escalation. The Syrian leader now enjoys direct on-the-ground Russian support, and the prospect of Russian personnel or materiel being destroyed by Western military action is more likely than in 2013. We should be mindful of the remarks by Russian officials that they may shoot down missiles and may also target their source.”

“Our past interventions have had a tendency of dragging us ever deeper in. Attempting to prevent future chemical attacks is one thing, but the Prime Minister and Presidents Trump and Macron have not ruled out attempting to topple President Assad wholesale. This seems unlikely, given the strong Russian and Iranian support for his régime, but if achieved his overthrow could usher in still more violence in Syria.”

“Recent history would suggest extremist groups, which covet ‘ungoverned space’, would flock to fill the vacuum – our intervention in Libya being a case in point. The implications for security, both in the Middle East and at home, could be serious. If pursued, such a policy would also underestimate the extent to which this vicious civil war is also a proxy war reflecting wider regional tensions. Very few moderates now remain in Syria.”